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World Cup 2006 Preview - Ecuador

Ecuador qualified for their second World Cup finals in succession on the back of a remarkable home record which included victories over both Brazil and Argentina.

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Outright Odds: 300/1
Group A Winners: 9/1

Ecuador qualified for their second World Cup finals in succession on the back of a remarkable home record which included victories over both Brazil and Argentina. So should punters rush out and lump on the huge 3001/ (Bet365) odds available for the largest upset in World Cup history? In short, no.

Ecuador qualified with one of the most lopsided qualifying record of any team competing in Germany this summer. Quito, the country’s capital, stands 2,850 metres above sea level and assisted by the thin air, Ecuador were almost unstoppable at home. They won seven out nine home games, including victories against the South American giants with the other two results goalless draws against Peru and Uruguay.

Away from home it was an entirely different story. Five defeats, two draws and one victory in the equally high altitude of Bolivia was perhaps a more realistic measure of their capabilities but overall they sealed third place in the group.

Ecuador will have to improve on their travels if they want to avoid humiliation in Germany. Their stint in the 2002 World Cup was their first but they have the victory over the third-placed team of 1998, Croatia, to draw inspiration from.

Potentially, they could be a tough team to break down in defence. Captain Ivan Hurtado, a 31-year old veteran with nearly 130 caps to his name is partnered by Giovany Espinoza who was the only player in South America to play in all 18 qualifying matches. For all this experience, the defence can be caught flat and, if Espinoza is taken out of the reckoning, is all over the place when high balls are played in the box. They are also weak in terms of goalkeeping.

Ecuador have moved away from the short-passing through the middle which has categorised their game in favour of striking quickly down the wings. In Edison Mendez, who scored the winning goal against Croatia and five goals in qualifying, they have a player who can cause problems. There are also high hopes surrounding Luis Antonio Valencia, 20, who chipped in with another three.

Former Southampton flop Augustin Delgado is Ecuador’s main focal point in attack. He netted five times in qualifying and scored his country’s first ever World Cup goal, taking the lead after five minutes against Mexico in a match they eventually lost 2-1.

Ecuador’s lack of experience in Europe could prove to be their downfall as they have only played three full internationals on the continent and they looked completely overawed when playing Italy four years ago. They will do well not to finish bottom of the group.

Recommended Bet:
Ecuador’s lack of experience in Europe and dire away form means they cannot be backed with any confidence apart from finishing bottom of the group. Look out for potentially tasty odds on them suffering a “shock” defeat against Costa Rica and consider them to finish bottom of Group A.

Costa Rica to beat Ecuador @ 2/1

 

World Cup 2006 Preview - England

We’ve seen it all before and do the tabloids genuinely believe this is “England’s best chance of success”?

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Outright Odds: 13/2
Group B Winners: 8/13

We’ve seen it all before and do the tabloids genuinely believe this is “England’s best chance of success”? What, again? Another year, another major tournament England are expected to win, yet they always bow out with a whimper. Why should this World Cup be any different? It’s not 1966 any more, after all.

For all the media playing up England’s chances, the bookmakers are far more conservative. The favourite stage of elimination odds-wise is the second round at 12/5, with quarter final elimination at 4/1 and the semi-finals at 9/2.

This is because England under Sven Goran Eriksson are just far too predictable. They may be able to qualify with ease through mediocre qualifying groups in which they are almost always top seeds, but the plain fact is they cannot perform on the big stage.

England will breeze through the group stage with comfortable victories over Paraguay and Trinidad & Tobago before an inevitable draw against Sweden in the final game. However, should they come up against Germany in the second round that may be the end of their World Cup adventure.

When it matters the most, England follow the same pattern time and time again. They always go a goal ahead but then lose their bottle and put everybody behind the ball for the remainder of the game in hope of clinging on to what they have got. Sometimes it works, such as against Argentina in the last World Cup, but more often it doesn’t, namely the defeat to Brazil in the next round and later France and Portugal in Euro 2004.

England are the best in the world at flattering to deceive, well, apart from Spain. On paper they have perhaps the best squad they have ever had at the manager’s disposal but for all the individual talent, the players often fail to gel effectively as a team. Arguably two of the best central midfielders in the world in Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard don’t appear to be able to play together while there is also the timeless problem of the absence of a natural left-sided player to deal with.

England have been dealt a further blow with the news that Wayne Rooney may also miss the finals. The side could do with his genius play and sheer brute force and give the faithful supporters something to cheer about in what could now be a short stint in the Finals.

Recommended Bet:
Don’t believe what you read in the papers and get swept up in patriotic bets. While this could be the best squad of players England have ever had they cannot be trusted with your betting money. You could try some handicap bets for the matches against Paraguay and Trindad & Tobago while a second round elimination bet could also be a wise, if not painful, investment.

England to be eliminated in the second round @ 12/5

 

World Cup 2006 Preview - France

France were required to call on the cavalry to ensure qualification to the finals. Stuck in fourth place in their group, retired veterans Zinedine Zidane, Claude Makelele and Lilian Thuram returned to the side in an attempt to turn around the fortunes of the failing side.

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Outright Odds: 12/1
Group G Winners: 1/2

France were required to call on the cavalry to ensure qualification to the finals. Stuck in fourth place in their group, retired veterans Zinedine Zidane, Claude Makelele and Lilian Thuram returned to the side in an attempt to turn around the fortunes of the failing side.

A precious 1-0 win in the Republic of Ireland, a 1-1 draw in Switzerland and a 4-0 hammering of Cyprus secured France top spot in a group in which they remained unbeaten. Two draws against Israel and Switzerland and one against Ireland added to their five wins and saw them avoid a potential banana skin in the play-offs.

This is the first time France have qualified for the World Cup in 20 years, as they entered the 1998 tournament as hosts and 2002 as Champions. They failed to reach the finals in 1990 and 1994 and will be desperate to avoid the humiliation they suffered four years ago in which they finished bottom of their group without a goal to their name.

France are an ageing side with Thuram and Zidane at 34 in the finals while Makelele, and goalkeeper Gregory Coupet will be 33 and midfielder Sylvain Wiltord 32. The main problem manager Raymond Domenech has endured is the younger generation of players just don’t look up to the task which has forced him to bring back the tried and trusted stars of yesteryear.

Domenech has also overlooked the creative likes of Robert Pires and Johann Micoud with the a potential midfield, bar Zidane, of Makelele, Wiltord and Patrick Vieria looking very static. Surely Zidane cannot be expected to do it all on his own at this late stage of his career?

Despite the chronic lack of midfield creativity, this year’s finals must see the best of strike pairing Thierry Henry and David Trezeguet who have failed to shine in previous tournaments. In 17 World Cup appearances between them, they have collectively scored just four goals while Djibril Cisse has failed to score in three.

While on paper France still have world class credentials they cannot be backed confidently to succeed in this tournament. At odds-on they provide almost no value to win or even qualify from Group G.

They play perhaps their toughest opponents Switzerland in the opening match and providing they come out of it unscathed they could use it as a springboard to qualify for the last 16.

Recommended Bet
There is no value in backing France to win the group or even qualify from it at heavy odds-on given their struggle for qualification and inept performance four years ago. They face Switzerland in their opening match, a side they drew twice with during the qualification process and another stalemate is the recommended bet here.

France vs Switzerland draw @ 9/4




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