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Gambling, Raffle, Lotto & Sweepstake

 

Horse Betting: Brother Derek is my bet for the Preakness!

"Barbaro was so overpowering in his Kentucky Derby romp that winning next Saturday's Preakness seems to be a foregone conclusion."

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"Barbaro was so overpowering in his Kentucky Derby romp that winning next Saturday's Preakness seems to be a foregone conclusion."
- Associated Press

"Unbeaten Barbaro looks invincible."
- Asbury Park Press

"I'd say he's the best horse I've seen in the past 25 years ... on the dirt, turf, any age group."
- Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens

The 131st Preakness Stakes will be run Saturday at Pimlico and most horsemen are fairly certain that Barbaro will show the rest of his challengers his backside in the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

Considering that I called this horse to be the winner of the Derby if Bob & John faltered and he did, you would think I would be touting this Michael Martz pupil. Well I am firm believer that adversity brings out the best in us and both trainer Dan Hendricks and his talented three year old Brother Derek, have had their fair share.

If you have been following Triple Crown or have been a reader of my articles recently, you will know that Hendricks was left paralyzed from a motocross accident two years ago. He bounced back with the help of his wife, three sons and some loyal owners and is a topnotch trainer.
Brother Derek wowed the horsemen on the West Coast in the early part of the season and arrived at Churchill Downs as the odds on favorite, to win the “Run for the Roses”. But when the draw was made for the big race, Hendricks talented horse was saddled with the 18 post position in the overcrowded race.

Brother Derek had a bad trip in the Derby, racing wide on the first turn and very wide on the second, while Barbaro had a perfect trip. He probably wouldn't have beaten Barbaro that day anyway, but, with better racing luck, he would have been much closer. His trainer Dan Hendricks believes the effort was as good as any his colt has had in his career.

"I guess you could say it's his best race," he said of the Derby performance. "He made it back. He took dirt. He took adversity. He went wide and he circled the field and he lost a shoe and still finished a very creditable fourth.
I could easily say he could have been second. So that's got to be one of his best races."

The Preakness will be a leisurely stroll on the beach compared to the traffic jam in the Derby and Brother Derek can scoot with Barbaro. I think he turns the tables here!

Bob Acton

<a href="http://www.sportsbook.com">Online Sports Betting</a>

 

Horse Betting: everything’s falling into place for BOB & JOHN and BARBARO!

Why would they allow twenty horses in a race in the first place is a good question and after yesterdays post position draw, the trainers for Lawyer Ron and Brother Derek, have to be fuming on the inside.

Online Sports Betting, Online Sports Gambling, Raffle, Lotto & Sweepstake, Sports Betting, Online Gambling, Raffle, Lotto & Sweepstake

Why would they allow twenty horses in a race in the first place is a good question and after yesterdays post position draw, the trainers for Lawyer Ron and Brother Derek, have to be fuming on the inside.

Brother Derek the favorite for the “Run for the Roses” has been annihilating opposition in California this spring but the fields have been small and he was a disappointing fourth in his only bulky field from post 13 at the Breeders Cup last November. Now he gets the 18th starting slot!

Dan Hendricks the trainer for Brother Derek has had his share of adversity, with his most recent being a paralyzing accident from a motocross accident is 2004, so he simply suggested jockey Alex Solis will track Lawyer Ron around the 1 ¼ course.

Lawyer Ron trainer Bob Holthus was diplomatic in his horse drawing the 17th hole and suggested that a muddy track will favor horses on the outside. His talented three year -old is unbeaten in six races!

I’m smiling this morning as Bob Baffert’s Bob & John my pick in the Derby has drawn the seven hole and this will allow him to get settled just off the pace and watch the rabbits in the race, run each other into the ground. If it comes up sloppy he has proven himself on this type of surface and he has been bumped around enough in California that the bulky field will not be an issue.

My second choice in the race is Barbaro and he will line up right next door to Bob & John in the eight slot. Much has been made of the schedule that Barbaro has used to prepare himself for the 132nd running of the Kentucky Derby, especially his race five weeks prior to this Saturday. Most insiders suggest that the horse will not be tight enough but he breezed 4 furlongs in an incredible 46 seconds last Saturday at Churchill Downs. The winner of the Florida Derby and Holy Bull has never tasted defeat and his trainer Michael Matz is going to be one of the best in the business for several years.

 

Horse Racing Betting System - Designing a Simple System

Putting together a system is not as difficult as it may sound, even for a beginner. The important thing, and with any betting, is that you write down every rule and follow it for at least 100 bets.

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Putting together a system is not as difficult as it may sound, even for a beginner. The important thing, and with any betting, is that you write down every rule and follow it for at least 100 bets. You do not need to trade real money, paper trading is best at first. If after 100 bets it is in profit, you can then give it a betting bank and start Gambling, Raffle, Lotto & Sweepstake.

Starting an untested system with real money, and packing it in on its first losing run, putting it down as failed, will only cost you more and more money in the long term. Being patient saves you money.

So let us get down to starting a system eh? I’ll show you below how simple they are to put together, this example is profitable, so no reason why you can not follow it with a betting bank, but its yearly profits are not huge, but have a go at your own, always making sure that you understand way a rule works.

The system below is designed for National Hunt racing.

‘The NH High SR Non-Handicap Fav System’

Rule 1: Non-Handicap races only.
This ensures that we do not include handicap races, which are more difficult to get profitable systems out of. Although when you do they are more profitable than non-handicap races.

Rule 2: Forecast Favourite only (if joint VOID bet)
Just to make sure we have one clear qualifier for our non-handicap race.

Rule 3: Forecast price must be odds on.
I know that the lower the odds the more likely it is to win, although the lower the odds the smaller the profit for a new bank.

The first 3 rules of any systems I quantify as the main system rules, they ensure we have the main set of qualifiers we are looking for. Those rules after, I regard as filters to take out any facts I know are not profitable long term.

Rule 4: Horse age must be 6+
This is because in the UK, horses are not generally full wound up for jumping until they are at least 6, so those of a lower age have erratic results that do not prove profitable, so no use including them.

Rule 5: Horse must have finished 2nd or worse on its last run.
Horses that won last time out usually go off at lower odds than they should, so an edge is taken away.

Rule 6: Must be a gelding.
Geldings win the majority of races over fences, and are generally have the most consistent and reliable form.

Rule 7: Going must be Good-Soft or better.
Any softer than this and results can get a bit random.

That is it. Over the last 10 years it has produced a 48pt profit even at those low odds, and a 63% SR overall. It has had 3 losing years in that period, the worst being 5pts, but using the betting exchange prices, they would also have shown a profit.. There are around 100 bets per year.

So you can see by this example, it does not profit every year, but long term it still shows a profit, and it is long term that any professional gambler will tell you is the only time span that matters.

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